Actual result
D+30.1
Final polls said
D+31.3
9 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinnipiac University | D+30.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+29.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+31.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+29.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+29.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+29.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | University of Connecticut | D+36.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | YouGov | D+39.0 | 8.9 | ✓ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2006-11-03 | 652 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-11-02 | 676 | D+30.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 401 | D+39.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-28 | 500 | D+31.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-27 | 926 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-25 | 679 | D+36.5 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2006-10-19 | 600 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-10-18 | 881 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-13 | 679 | D+39.2 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-10-09 | 572 | D+36.0 | 6 |
| University of Connecticut | 2006-10-06 | 637 | D+36.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-10-02 | 500 | D+35.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 600 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2006-09-23 | 1181 | D+34.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-22 | 679 | D+40.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-17 | 600 | D+42.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-13 | 500 | D+38.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2006-09-10 | 572 | D+31.0 | 1 |