VotePredictor Elections forecast — win probability
Ned Lamont (D)
79%
(R) Ryan Fazio
21%
Lean D · predicted margin D+12.8
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+12.8 — a 79% Democratic win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Democrats 79% Republicans 21%
Polls (0)
No polls on file for this race.