Connecticut Governor
Ned Lamont (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Connecticut Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 20 points in the projection. Updated daily from 9 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' published win probability for each party since September 28, when the current model began — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of winningMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 9 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+20.0 — a 100% Democratic win.
Latest news
- Early Addition: Is Harry running?
Because Harry Styles' Madison Square Garden residency is over in time for the marathon, here are your early links: Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont going for a historic third term, real estate brokers posing in their listing photos, watches on ankles and more. [ m…
Gothamist · October 30, 2026 - Federal Court Gives Connecticut Glock Ban The Heave-Ho
A federal judge issued an injunction blocking Connecticut from enforcing a ban on Glock pistols Wednesday. Glock and the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) sued to block Connecticut’s ban on the manufacturer’s popular pistols, which Democratic Connect…
Freerepublic.com · October 1, 2026 
Ned Lamont Leads in Connecticut Governor’s RaceA new co/efficient poll in Connecticut finds Ned Lamont (D) leading Ryan Fazio (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 41%. Connecticut Governor’s Race Ned Lamont (D) 48% Ryan Fazio (R) 41% co/efficient poll
Politicalwire.com · September 23, 2026
Fact check: Did Gov. Ned Lamont raise Connecticut electric bills like Ryan Fazio says?Republican challenger Ryan Fazio told Connecticut voters in a recent campaign mailer that two-term Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont has raised their electric bills. The high cost of electricity and cost of living in the state is a central issue in the 2026 campaign…
Biztoc.com · September 13, 2026
Connecticut just approved $1.9 billion in bonding. Here's what that coversHARTFORD - In 25 minutes, the State Bond Commission on Tuesday approved $1.9 billion for various items, including $600 million for statewide school construction and $446 million for a wide variety of transportation projects. The 10-member panel, dominated by …
Biztoc.com · September 8, 2026
- Ned Lamont Leads in Connecticut Governor’s Race
A new co/efficient poll in Connecticut finds Ned Lamont (D) leading Ryan Fazio (R) in the governor’s race, 48% to 41%. Connecticut Governor’s Race Ned Lamont (D) 48% Ryan Fazio (R) 41% co/efficient poll
Politicalwire.com · September 23, 2026 - Fact check: Did Gov. Ned Lamont raise Connecticut electric bills like Ryan Fazio says?
Republican challenger Ryan Fazio told Connecticut voters in a recent campaign mailer that two-term Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont has raised their electric bills. The high cost of electricity and cost of living in the state is a central issue in the 2026 campaign…
Biztoc.com · September 13, 2026 
Connecticut Catholic bishops condemn discrimination against Catholics at public schoolGUNDAM_Ai/Shutterstock Washington, D.C. Newsroom, Aug 31, 2022 / 17:15 pm (CNA). Connecticut’s Catholic dioceses have condemned comments made in a video by a public elementary school assistant principal who admitted on hidden camera that he discrimina…
Catholicnewsagency.com · August 31, 2022- ‘A Message Loud And Clear’: GOP Flips CT State Senate District Biden Won By 25 Points
Republican Ryan Fazio beat Democrat Alexis Gevanter by nearly 3 points to secure a seat in the Connecticut Senate, flipping state Senate district 36 from blue to red. “Today the voters of Greenwich, Stamford, and New Canaan sent a message loud and clear to th…
Freerepublic.com · August 20, 2021 
Connecticut Pro-Family Group Celebrates ‘Culturally Conservative’ Ryan Fazio Senate Flip VictoryFamily Institute of Connecticut is joining in celebrating Republican Ryan Fazio’s victory in flipping his district’s state Senate seat.
Breitbart News · August 19, 2021
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
12 polls · 9 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Connecticut Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ned Lamont (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+20.0.
What do the polls say in the Connecticut Governor race?
There are 12 polls of this race; today's forecast uses the 9 from the last 61 days. The most recent, from Wesleyan University/YouGov (2026-10-12), showed D+23.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+20.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Connecticut Governor race?
Ned Lamont is the Democratic candidate; Ryan Fazio is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Connecticut Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Connecticut Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.