Connecticut Governor
Ned Lamont (D) is all but certain to win the 2026 Connecticut Governor race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 17 points in the projection. Updated daily from 8 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 8 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts D+17.0 — a 99% Democratic win.
The polls behind it
8 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Connecticut Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ned Lamont (D), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of D+17.0.
What do the polls say in the Connecticut Governor race?
There are 8 polls of this race. The most recent, from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute[69] (2026-09-14), showed D+17.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is D+17.0.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Connecticut Governor race?
Ned Lamont is the Democratic candidate; Ryan Fazio is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Connecticut Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Connecticut Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.