Actual result
D+37.4
Final polls said
D+38.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+33.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+40.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+34.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+41.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+33.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2006-10-31 | 799 | D+40.0 | 3 |
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2006-10-24 | 585 | D+41.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2006-10-22 | 400 | D+34.0 | 3 |