Actual result
D+33.0
Final polls said
D+28.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+24.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+32.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+39.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+24.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+15.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2006-09-24 | 500 | D+32.0 | 1 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2006-09-16 | 500 | D+39.0 | 6 |
| American Research Group | 2006-09-13 | 600 | D+15.0 | 18 |