Actual result
D+35.5
Final polls said
D+35.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+32.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+35.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+34.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+32.9 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | West Chester University | D+31.3 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+28.0 | 7.5 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 657 | D+35.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-10 | 500 | D+28.0 | 7 |
| West Chester University | 2008-10-07 | 429 | D+31.3 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 703 | D+35.0 | 0 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | D+34.0 | 1 |