Actual result
R+50.9
Final polls said
R+46.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+41.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | R+55.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | DFM Research | R+44.0 | 6.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+41.2 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+40.0 | 10.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFM Research | 2008-10-13 | 504 | R+44.0 | 7 |
| Minnesota State University Moorhead Public Affairs Institute | 2008-10-07 | 606 | R+55.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-08 | 500 | R+40.0 | 11 |