Actual result
R+5.2
Final polls said
D+7.2
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+6.6
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+6.0 | 11.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | Hays Research Group | D+6.3 | 11.5 | ✗ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+6.6 | 11.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Alaska Survey Research | D+8.0 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 400 | D+6.3 | 11 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+8.0 | 13 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-09-21 | 500 | D+5.0 | 10 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | D+6.0 | 11 |