Actual result
D+14.5
Final polls said
D+10.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mellman Group | D+17.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.6 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+4.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-25 | 634 | D+4.0 | 10 |
| Mellman Group | 2008-10-19 | 400 | D+17.0 | 3 |