Actual result
D+1.2
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+4.7 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+6.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+7.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Greg Smith & Associates | R+12.0 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2008-10-21 | 273 | D+7.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-18 | 613 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2008-09-27 | 400 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Greg Smith & Associates | 2008-09-27 | 200 | R+12.0 | 13 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2008-09-10 | 400 | D+5.0 | 4 |