Actual result
R+5.1
Final polls said
R+6.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.7 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+6.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 13.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+22.0 | 16.9 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-10-15 | 400 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 623 | D+8.0 | 13 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-09-10 | 300 | R+22.0 | 17 |