Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+3.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+7.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+2.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+2.0 | 7.1 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-03-03 | 517 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-03-01 | 550 | R+2.0 | 7 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2008-02-23 | 402 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2008-02-08 | 525 | R+2.0 | 7 |