Actual result
D+19.4
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+15.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.9 | 4.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-22 | 599 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-04 | 613 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-09 | 603 | D+11.0 | 8 |