Actual result
R+7.8
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+8.8
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+8.8 | 16.7 | ✗ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+9.0 | 16.8 | ✗ |
| 4 | Impact Research | D+16.0 | 23.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+17.0 | 24.8 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-10-22 | 300 | D+2.0 | 10 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2008-10-15 | 300 | D+11.0 | 19 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2008-10-07 | 400 | D+17.0 | 25 |
| Impact Research | 2008-09-19 | 500 | D+16.0 | 24 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-04-28 | 501 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Impact Research | 2008-04-09 | 500 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Impact Research | 2008-03-18 | 500 | D+5.0 | 2 |