Actual result
D+34.9
Final polls said
D+37.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+35.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+35.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+34.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | D+41.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | 2008-10-18 | 215 | D+41.0 | 6 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2008-10-15 | 193 | D+34.0 | 1 |