Actual result
R+22.6
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+18.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.8 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 618 | R+18.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-13 | 589 | R+11.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-17 | 636 | R+9.0 | 14 |