Actual result
D+15.9
Final polls said
D+24.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+19.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+19.9 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 668 | D+24.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-13 | 587 | D+13.0 | 3 |