Actual result
R+21.5
Final polls said
R+13.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dittman Research | R+19.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | R+18.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+17.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+16.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+13.2 | 8.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | R+12.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Alaska Survey Research | R+11.0 | 10.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hays Research Group | R+3.7 | 17.8 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 600 | R+12.0 | 10 |
| Hays Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 400 | R+3.7 | 18 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| Dittman Research | 2008-10-26 | 489 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 352 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-10-18 | 500 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-06 | 500 | R+15.0 | 7 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-10-05 | 500 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-10 | 600 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-09 | 500 | R+31.0 | 9 |