Actual result
R+19.9
Final polls said
R+9.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+11.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+15.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+11.2 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+10.0 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+7.0 | 12.9 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group | 2008-10-30 | 600 | R+7.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-27 | 500 | R+10.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 491 | R+12.0 | 8 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2008-10-11 | 709 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-22 | 500 | R+9.0 | 11 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-21 | 600 | R+12.0 | 8 |