Actual result
D+85.9
Final polls said
D+66.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+68.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Research Group | D+69.0 | 16.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+68.0 | 17.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+66.0 | 19.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 228 | D+66.0 | 20 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-12 | 600 | D+69.0 | 17 |