Actual result
R+25.4
Final polls said
R+23.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+27.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+27.3 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+23.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+23.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+39.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | American Research Group | R+43.0 | 17.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 372 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2008-10-21 | 503 | R+23.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-09 | 500 | R+39.0 | 14 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-09 | 600 | R+43.0 | 18 |