Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+38.3 — a 99% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Forecast over time
The model's win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date. Dashed line = even odds.
Latest news
- Book Review: Going Infinite
Published on October 24, 2023 3:00 PM GMTPreviously: Sadly, FTX I doubted whether it would be a good use of time to read Michael Lewis’s new book Going Infinite about Sam Bankman-Fried (hereafter SBF or Sam). What would I learn that I did not already know?…
Lesswrong.com · October 24, 2023 - Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democrat David Roth in Idaho's US Senate election
Republican Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democratic challenger David Roth in ruby-red Idaho.
Business Insider · November 8, 2022 
Midterm updates | Roth wins Dem primary for Senate in IdahoDavid Roth has won Idaho's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
Minneapolis Star Tribune · May 18, 2022
2523 - Trump's Second Impeachment Trial & Biden's Stimulus Issues w/ Benjamin Dixon & David RothSam hosts Benjamin Dixon (@BenjaminPDixon) of the Benjamin Dixon Show and David Roth (@david_j_roth), editor at Defector and host of The Distraction Podcast, to discuss the week's top stories including the second senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump and t…
Majorityreportradio.com · February 12, 2021- @IDJoe4Congress -- Deleted after 12 minutes 9 minutes ago
Sammy Hager and David Roth are running for office in Idaho.
ProPublica · April 3, 2020
- Shaheen, Risch, Colleagues Statement on China's Ethnic Unity Law
Today, U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Jim Risch (R-ID), Ranking Member and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, alongside Senators John Curtis (R-UT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Ted Budd (R-NC), Tim Kaine (D-VA), Tammy Du…
Globalsecurity.org · July 1, 2026 - Risch, Coons Statement on Violence in Sudan
Today, U.S. Senators Jim Risch (R-Idaho), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Chris Coons (D-Del.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, released the following statement on the violence in Sudan:
Globalsecurity.org · July 1, 2026 
Trump gets a shot across the bow from Republicans as his grip is 'slipping': CNN anchorA major Senate rebuke of President Donald Trump on Tuesday led a CNN anchor to declare that the 80-year-old MAGA leader just received a clear message that his grip on the GOP has weakened.In a striking bipartisan rebuke, the Senate on Tuesday voted to order T…
Raw Story · June 23, 2026- Risch, Cornyn, Colleagues' Bill to Prevent Foreign Adversaries from Influencing U.S. Policy Passes Senate Foreign Relations Committee
U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, joined U.S. Senators John Cornyn (R-Texas), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Deb Fischer (R-Neb.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), and John K…
Globalsecurity.org · June 22, 2026 - Shaheen, Risch, Coons, Cornyn Introduce Legislation to Address Conflict in Sudan
Today, U.S. Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Jim Risch (R-ID), Ranking Member and Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Chris Coons (D-DE) and John Cornyn (R-TX) introduced the Preventing External Aggression and Conflict Escalation (PEACE) in …
Globalsecurity.org · June 10, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights[23][A] | 2026-06-07 | 500 | R+40.0 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 2026-06-01 | 774 | R+26.0 |