Idaho Senate
Jim Risch (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Idaho Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 35 points in the projection. Updated daily from 3 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 3 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+35.1 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
- Book Review: Going Infinite
Published on October 24, 2023 3:00 PM GMTPreviously: Sadly, FTX I doubted whether it would be a good use of time to read Michael Lewis’s new book Going Infinite about Sam Bankman-Fried (hereafter SBF or Sam). What would I learn that I did not already know?…
Lesswrong.com · October 24, 2023 - Republican incumbent Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democrat David Roth in Idaho's US Senate election
Republican Sen. Mike Crapo faces off against Democratic challenger David Roth in ruby-red Idaho.
Business Insider · November 8, 2022 
Midterm updates | Roth wins Dem primary for Senate in IdahoDavid Roth has won Idaho's Democratic primary for U.S. Senate.
Minneapolis Star Tribune · May 18, 2022
2523 - Trump's Second Impeachment Trial & Biden's Stimulus Issues w/ Benjamin Dixon & David RothSam hosts Benjamin Dixon (@BenjaminPDixon) of the Benjamin Dixon Show and David Roth (@david_j_roth), editor at Defector and host of The Distraction Podcast, to discuss the week's top stories including the second senate impeachment trial of Donald Trump and t…
Majorityreportradio.com · February 12, 2021- @IDJoe4Congress -- Deleted after 12 minutes 9 minutes ago
Sammy Hager and David Roth are running for office in Idaho.
ProPublica · April 3, 2020
Quite Possibly The Best Political Ad EverIf candidate quality mattered, Todd Achilles would defeat the rubber stamp for Trump that is Jim Risch. But since it often doesn't in places like Idaho, he likely won't win, but he should. via YouTube Todd Achilles is an independent running for Senate in Idah…
Crooksandliars.com · September 27, 2026- Chairman Risch Statement on House Passage of Russia Sanctions Bill
U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, today released the statement below on the House of Representatives' passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which would impose critical new…
Globalsecurity.org · September 17, 2026 
An ugly radioactive surprise is buried deep inside Trump's deal for a loyal MAGA stateOne of the most critical issues facing Idaho is one that has received little attention but has profound consequences for the future of our state – the agreement that would make Idaho the dumping ground for a third of the radioactive waste generated in our cou…
Raw Story · September 9, 2026- Chairman Risch Statement on Passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act
U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, today delivered the following remarks ahead of Senate passage of The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which would impose critical new sanctions on …
Globalsecurity.org · August 7, 2026 - Chairman Risch, Ranking Member Shaheen Meet with UK Foreign Secretary Miliband
Today, U.S. Senators Jim Risch (R-Idaho), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Ranking Member released the statement below following their meeting with the Foreign Secretary of the United Kingdom Ed Miliband.
Globalsecurity.org · August 5, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
3 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Idaho Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Jim Risch (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+35.1.
What do the polls say in the Idaho Senate race?
There are 3 polls of this race. The most recent, from Change Research (2026-07-30), showed R+30.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+35.1.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Idaho Senate race?
David Roth is the Democratic candidate; Jim Risch is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Idaho Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Idaho Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.