Actual result
D+25.6
Final polls said
D+18.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+28.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+22.2 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Suffolk University | D+19.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | SurveyUSA | D+17.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | American Research Group | D+16.0 | 9.6 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 658 | D+17.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 705 | D+18.0 | 8 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+19.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-13 | 624 | D+24.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+28.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 500 | D+20.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 679 | D+16.0 | 10 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-21 | 600 | D+16.0 | 10 |