Actual result
R+13.2
Final polls said
R+11.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+13.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | R+13.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+12.4 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | R+16.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+8.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-27 | 500 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 417 | R+13.0 | 0 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2008-10-17 | 405 | R+13.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 500 | R+8.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-15 | 600 | R+16.0 | 3 |