Actual result
D+37.0
Final polls said
D+30.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+31.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+33.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+31.3 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+30.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | American Research Group | D+18.0 | 19.0 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 275 | D+30.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-06 | 500 | D+33.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2008-09-20 | 600 | D+18.0 | 19 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-13 | 500 | D+24.0 | 13 |