Actual result
D+1.2
Final polls said
D+4.6
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska Survey Research | D+1.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Hays Research Group | D+7.3 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+8.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hays Research Group | 2008-11-02 | 400 | D+7.3 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-28 | 500 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 358 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-10-18 | 500 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-06 | 500 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-10-05 | 500 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Alaska Survey Research | 2008-09-21 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-09 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |