Actual result
D+29.4
Final polls said
D+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+34.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+27.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+34.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+34.2 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | West Chester University | D+36.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+43.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 657 | D+34.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 346 | D+27.0 | 2 |
| West Chester University | 2008-10-07 | 429 | D+36.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 703 | D+32.0 | 3 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2008-09-19 | 601 | D+43.0 | 14 |