Actual result
D+33.7
Final polls said
D+28.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+29.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+32.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+37.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+29.6 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | SurveyUSA | D+24.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-27 | 658 | D+24.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 705 | D+23.0 | 11 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-21 | 400 | D+37.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-10-13 | 624 | D+30.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-13 | 500 | D+32.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 500 | D+35.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2008-09-22 | 679 | D+38.0 | 4 |