Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+1.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+4.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of South Alabama Polling Group | D+13.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | InsiderAdvantage | D+5.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+4.2 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | R+28.0 | 37.9 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-27 | 500 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 417 | R+28.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 417 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| University of South Alabama Polling Group | 2008-10-17 | 405 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-30 | 500 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2008-09-24 | 500 | D+5.0 | 5 |