Actual result
D+25.0
Final polls said
D+27.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+25.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+25.7 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+23.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | GQR | D+30.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Moore Information Group | D+18.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 352 | D+25.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2008-10-22 | 603 | D+30.0 | 5 |
| GQR | 2008-10-14 | 618 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-14 | 800 | D+23.0 | 2 |
| GQR | 2008-10-07 | 627 | D+25.0 | 0 |
| Moore Information Group | 2008-09-24 | 400 | D+18.0 | 7 |
| GQR | 2008-09-24 | 610 | D+27.0 | 2 |