Actual result
D+27.5
Final polls said
D+20.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+28.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Orion Strategies | D+24.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+22.1 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+18.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 2128 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 404 | D+18.0 | 9 |
| Orion Strategies | 2008-10-20 | 600 | D+24.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-24 | 500 | D+28.0 | 1 |