Actual result
D+30.8
Final polls said
D+25.0
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | D+27.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+26.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+22.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+20.8 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+18.0 | 12.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Hendrix College | D+16.0 | 14.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | ccAdvertising | D+11.7 | 19.1 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 500 | D+22.0 | 9 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-17 | 809 | D+27.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-17 | 625 | D+26.0 | 5 |
| Hendrix College | 2010-10-14 | 1953 | D+16.0 | 15 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-11 | 2124 | D+11.7 | 19 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-30 | 500 | D+10.0 | 21 |
| Ipsos | 2010-09-18 | 436 | D+18.0 | 13 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-09-13 | 625 | D+21.0 | 10 |