Actual result
D+17.1
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | D+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | D+5.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+3.4 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+2.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-23 | 1181 | D+5.0 | 12 |
| Ward Research | 2010-10-16 | 608 | D+8.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 500 | D+2.0 | 15 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-11 | 1151 | D+3.0 | 14 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 1326 | D+2.0 | 15 |