Actual result
R+32.2
Final polls said
R+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+29.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Jones & Associates | R+34.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+29.4 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+37.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+27.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2010-10-27 | 1206 | R+34.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-26 | 625 | R+27.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 500 | R+37.0 | 5 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2010-10-13 | 600 | R+25.0 | 7 |
| Dan Jones & Associates | 2010-09-10 | 600 | R+21.0 | 11 |