Actual result
D+1.8
Final polls said
D+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+1.0 | 2.8 | ✗ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 750 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-12 | 625 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 500 | D+3.0 | 1 |