Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
D+6.3
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+7.1
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.1 | 9.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | GQR | D+12.0 | 14.2 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GQR | 2010-10-11 | 400 | D+12.0 | 14 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-03 | 300 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| GQR | 2010-09-27 | 400 | D+9.0 | 11 |