Actual result
D+17.4
Final polls said
D+10.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hendrix College | D+18.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+14.6 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Diamond State Consulting Group | D+3.0 | 14.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2010-10-14 | 518 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Diamond State Consulting Group | 2010-09-27 | 442 | D+3.0 | 14 |