Actual result
D+27.4
Final polls said
D+18.1
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 8.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | MRG Research | D+18.1 | 9.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-25 | 397 | D+18.1 | 9 |
| MRG Research | 2010-10-04 | 545 | D+21.0 | 6 |