Actual result
D+2.9
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+1.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Landmark Communications | R+4.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Lester & Associates | D+10.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-28 | 914 | R+4.0 | 7 |
| Landmark Communications | 2010-10-19 | 836 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Lester & Associates | 2010-10-09 | 500 | D+10.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-27 | 400 | D+1.0 | 2 |