Actual result
R+1.1
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ward Research | R+3.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 2.1 | ✗ |
| 3 | PSB Research | R+4.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 5 | MRG Research | D+5.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+16.0 | 14.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | ccAdvertising | R+18.1 | 17.0 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-23 | 620 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Ward Research | 2010-10-16 | 399 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-10-05 | 400 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-04 | 406 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 641 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-05-20 | 1082 | R+18.1 | 9 |
| MRG Research | 2010-05-06 | 1081 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Ward Research | 2010-04-25 | 442 | R+14.0 | 5 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-04-25 | 506 | R+16.0 | 7 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-04-09 | 442 | R+5.0 | 4 |