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Toss-up · 2010 House
Hawaii House
In the 2010 Hawaii House race, Colleen W. Hanabusa (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+6.5
Final polls said
D+1.0
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRG Research | D+5.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group | D+4.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Ward Research | R+3.0 | 9.5 | ✗ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+4.0 | 10.5 | ✗ |
| 6 | Harstad Strategic Research | R+16.0 | 22.5 | ✗ |
| 7 | ccAdvertising | R+18.1 | 24.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
10 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
MRG Research2010-10-231
Ward Research2010-10-169
Global Strategy Group2010-10-052
PSB Research2010-10-0410
Public Policy Polling2010-10-025
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Hawaii House race?
Colleen W. Hanabusa (D) won, by about 6.5 points (D+6.5).
When was the 2010 Hawaii House election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.