Actual result
D+46.9
Final polls said
D+42.3
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+33.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+33.2 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ward Research | D+61.0 | 14.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | MRG Research | D+23.5 | 23.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRG Research | 2010-10-23 | 560 | D+23.5 | 23 |
| Ward Research | 2010-10-16 | 192 | D+61.0 | 14 |