Actual result
R+14.7
Final polls said
R+10.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+12.3 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+18.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | We Ask America | R+10.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+7.5 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Impact Research | R+4.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2010-10-31 | 829 | R+10.0 | 5 |
| Impact Research | 2010-10-06 | 500 | R+4.0 | 11 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-02 | 442 | R+12.3 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-29 | 401 | R+18.0 | 3 |