Actual result
R+6.3
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+6.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | R+5.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | ccAdvertising | R+8.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+1.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Benenson Strategy Group | D+10.0 | 16.3 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2010-10-31 | 784 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-11 | 406 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2010-10-05 | 400 | D+10.0 | 16 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-03 | 400 | R+6.0 | 0 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-02 | 442 | R+8.0 | 2 |