Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+8.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | R+8.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | PSB Research | R+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+4.5 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+18.5 | 8.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+2.0 | 11.6 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| We Ask America | 2010-10-31 | 1103 | R+8.0 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 417 | R+7.0 | 3 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-02 | 442 | R+18.5 | 9 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-26 | 400 | D+2.0 | 12 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-09-24 | 400 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| We Ask America | 2010-09-08 | 1250 | R+2.7 | 7 |