Actual result
D+35.2
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+15.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magellan Strategies | D+18.0 | 17.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+15.0 | 20.2 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-10-12 | 945 | D+18.0 | 17 |