VotePredictor
past elections

Kansas House

Raj Goyle (D) vs Mike Pompeo (R)

Actual result
R+22.3
Final polls said
R+16.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.0
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & AssociatesR+17.05.3
2SurveyUSAR+16.06.3
3VotePredictorR+13.09.3
4GBAOR+2.020.3

Polls (5)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
SurveyUSA2010-10-27534R+16.06
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates2010-10-10300R+17.05
SurveyUSA2010-10-06539R+13.09
SurveyUSA2010-09-14538R+10.012
GBAO2010-09-08500R+2.020