Actual result
D+0.3
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+1.0 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+6.4 | 6.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mellman Group | D+12.0 | 11.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Braun Research | D+14.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | Grove Insight | D+14.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-17 | 500 | D+4.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Mellman Group | 2010-09-29 | 400 | D+12.0 | 12 |
| Braun Research | 2010-09-21 | 508 | D+14.0 | 14 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-09-20 | 407 | D+7.0 | 7 |
| Mellman Group | 2010-09-13 | 400 | D+20.0 | 20 |
| Grove Insight | 2010-09-08 | 400 | D+14.0 | 14 |