Actual result
D+4.5
Final polls said
D+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of New Hampshire Survey Center | D+4.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | MassINC Polling Group | D+3.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.4 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Hampshire Survey Center | 2010-10-19 | 349 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| MassINC Polling Group | 2010-10-14 | 400 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-06 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |