Actual result
D+13.6
Final polls said
D+0.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+16.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+9.1 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+9.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Digital Research | R+4.0 | 17.6 | ✗ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | 2010-10-27 | 295 | R+4.0 | 18 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-15 | 295 | D+5.0 | 9 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2010-10-13 | 250 | D+16.0 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-10 | 305 | D+15.0 | 1 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-27 | 202 | D+28.0 | 14 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-13 | 316 | D+24.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-04 | 790 | D+9.0 | 5 |