Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+11.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+12.5 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Digital Research | D+4.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Pan Atlantic Research | D+20.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | 2010-10-27 | 326 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-15 | 305 | D+19.0 | 9 |
| Pan Atlantic Research | 2010-10-13 | 250 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-10 | 300 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-27 | 202 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-13 | 287 | D+20.0 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-04 | 678 | D+7.0 | 3 |