Actual result
D+10.9
Final polls said
D+10.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+9.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+14.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | WPA Intelligence | D+6.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grove Insight | 2010-10-11 | 400 | D+14.0 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2010-10-04 | 300 | D+6.0 | 5 |